Specter Swap: Winners and Losers

After decades of Republicans accusing Arlen Specter of being a Republican in Name Only, he obliged by casting off the Republican name. In an official statement today, Specter announced he was switching parties in order to seek re-election as a Democrat.

Of course, there has been some vitriol against the Pennsylvanian on Twitter and on various conservative blogs - but according to recent polls, this move is as much about the party leaving Specter as it is about Specter leaving the party. Staring down a primary rematch with 2004 challenger (and near winner) Pat Toomey, Specter also had to face the reality that many moderate Republicans had switched their registration since then to participate in the Obama/Clinton presidential primary in 2008. The remaining Republican voters were more conservative and likely to react to Specter's support for some of the Obama Administrations fiscal policies.

Simply put, had Specter remained a Republican, he would not have remained a Senator. For that reason alone, he's a winner in this deal - and more so if there were any payoffs from his now-fellow-Democrats to jump on board. And if he does have to face off against Toomey, it will be against a full electorate, rather than a conservative base.

Specter does have a key vulnerability: his 2004 primary victory came with some help from then-Senator Rick Santorum (who lost in 2006) and President George W. Bush. Video from those campaign rallies may make it easy for Democratic primary opponents, and could also make it easier for Pat Toomey to separate himself from the Bush Republican Party brand.

To that end, Toomey will be a winner if he doesn't draw a moderate primary challenger. His campaign can now focus on his economic bona fides and take on a more broad, moderate town early on - rather than playing to the conservative base in order to win a primary. It also allows him to seal up establishment Republican support early on, rather than trying to mend fences after a bruising primary.

In the short term, the Democrats win as well, both nationally and in Pennsylvania. The Democratic race for the Senate was wide open after TV's Chris Matthews bowed out; now they have a strong candidate. The 60-seat majority in the Senate is obviously the biggest win for the Democrats. The Obama Administration had suggested using fast-track Senate rules for some controversial initiatives (like socializing health care) to get around a Republican filibuster. Now, the adminsitration will be able to contiue paying lip service to an open legislative process.

But oddly enough, the Democrats also have the most to lose from Specter's switch. Having attained 60 seats, a loss of even a couple in the next election is magnified. And though Toomey was probably toast against any reasonable Democratic challenger, his chances are arguably better - with a unified Pennsyvania GOP in his corner - against a Democrat who has spent the last 40 years on the other side of the people he is now depending on. After all, are Pennsylvania Democrats going to be excited about Arlen Specter? Or will they view this as a race between two Republicans?

And of course, if Specter wins, the Democrats may still find themselves the big losers; then they'd be stuck with Arlen Specter.

Otter has 1,000 Facebook friends - and it isn't even beloved Muppet Emmit Otter

Last week I was talking with a colleague about Facebook campaigns- or, more accurately, about campaign applications for Facebook. We talked about how easy it seems to now be to gain hundreds - if not thousands - of people for a cause, but how difficult it is to turn those people into activists. Today I read about a sea otter whose Facebook fan page has 1,000 follower.

Now, to be fair the otter in question - who goes by the name "Olive" - was a bit of a charity case: she was in rehab after wading through a nasty patch of oil, so many of her followers wanted updates on her treatment and re-release into the wild. However, it begs the ever-present question on social network sensations: now what? Will the folks behind the Facebook site use it as a platform to further inform Olive's followers on the dangers sea animals face from pollutants? Will it be used to raise money for clean-up efforts? Without a good strategy, te goodwill Olive promoted may not go as far as it could.

It reminds me of a story I heard once about a 1972 campaign event for Richard Nixon, who was seeking re-election in a campaign that would, eventually, mean the end of his Presidency. Eager to show that young people supported the President, buses were chartered and high-profile entertainment talent was paid to perform. It was a giant event that cost a lot of money, but no one thought to collect the contact information of the hundreds of participants - participants who, though the outcome of the Presidential contest was nearly certain, could have helped with many Congressional or other down-ballot races.

It's relatively easy to pack a concert hall with people or amass thousands of Facebook friends with the right amount of resources. But those resources will be wasted if the next step - the answer to the question, "Then What?" - is not fully thought out.

Sunday Funnies: Forget Red Bull.

Today I drove from Charleston, S.C. to JimEltringham.com Headquarters in lovely Merrifield, Va. in a mere eight hours. I could have made it in six if only I'd had Brawndo.

(If you want to learn more about this wonderful product, I'd suggest getting more information here.)

Man, I'd hate to have a degree in journalism from THAT place

My beloved Alma Mater, the University of Massachusetts, is drawing fire for not standing up for the free speech of the Republican Club. The school that gave us the Greatest American President Ever charged the club an extra $444 for security to bring former Boston Herald columnist Don Feder to campus. The extra security then stood by as Feder's speech was shouted down.

Check it out:

This comes on the heels of the campus's conservative newspaper, the Minuteman, getting stolen - and the student government calling the cops on a student leader who actually tried to stand up for them.

Guess who won't be sending a check to the Alumni Association?

Of course, given that my current job is, in part, a result of my participation in the Republican Club and the Minuteman, I bet they wouldn't want it, anyway. But I'll be sure to send a note to tell them why - and you should feel free to let them know what you think, too.

Like Kafka, but with more maple syrup...

Last Friday, you may have woken up Canadian, as our neighbors to the north changed their citizenship rules to incorporate folks who were previously non-Canadians.

So how did the country that gave us Lorne Michaels, the Kids in the Hall, William Shatner, Jim Carrey, Alex Trebek, John Candy, and Dan Aykroyd announce such a sweeping and important policy change? Why, a YouTube video:

Sunday Funnies: Demonstrations in the streets

The major news story of the week - though it was conspicuously absent from the mainstream media - were the street demonstrations by people who felt like they weren't getting what they paid for. In fact, they even used caffeinated beverages to get the point across.

Tea parties? Even worse: Angry Yankee Fans, who felt a Pepsi promotion wasn't delivering as promised - which put the softball company just about on par with the Red Sox:

Madden! Madden!

When I first heard the news yesterday that John Madden is retiring, my first reaction was that it was at least ten years too late. My Madden hating began in 1995, when he and Pat Summerall were the number one broadcast team for Fox's NFL broadcasts; week in and week out, it seemed like they did nothing but announce Cowboys games and praise Aikman, Smith, Switzer, et. al. ( That was a bitter pill to swallow for a Giants fan suffering through the Dave Brown era.) In the last few seasons, his admiration of Brett Favre became the subject of much parody.

But the man is retiring, which gives us a chance to look back on his whole career. When an athlete retires, he is usually judged not by his final seasons but by how he played the game. Through this perspective, there was a lot I liked about Madden. As an analyst, Madden was capable of explaining plays without insulting his viewers' intelligence. He was worth watching because of his colorful descriptions and didn't use the crutch of controversial or inflammatory statements. He was the de facto national voice of football for three decades, calling the premiere games on Sunday afternoons, Monday nights, and Sunday nights.

As a baseball fan, I notice that many football commentators feel the need to bash baseball and other sports. Madden didn't. He talked freely and frequently about how much he enjoyed watching playoff baseball games, and his comments indicated a depth of knowledge about that sport, as well. This appreciation of organized competition always made me think of Madden as more than just a football announcer; he was a fan of sports in general. (Long-time Tampa Bay Devil Rays fan Dick Vitale falls into this category as well.)

Of course, Madden will always be known for his signature phrase: "BOOM!" It kind of makes him sound like a stereotypical, meat headed jock. But that act belies an understanding of the changing markets of media consumption that he rarely gets credit for: remember, Madden was in on the ground floor for the video game boom. Now, his annual Madden Football title is as iconic as his broadcast - and not because he simply signed his name to endorse a product.

Indicative of his work ethic and care for his own good name, Madden was highly involved in the title from its inception as a computer game for the Apple II in 1988. He refused to endorse an early concept that would have reduced the number of players per side in order to accomodate 1980s computer capabilities. In one interview, Madden told a story about watching his son and a friend play an early version of the game and noticing that it was far too easy to convert long fourth down plays. To improve the realism, the flaw was corrected. This hard work probably has much to do with the long-term success of the game.

Incidentally, each year's version of Madden has a new wrinkle - he doesn't simply re-release last year's game with a new cover. The 2009 version has a feature that automatically compensates for skill differences in players. As he did on the air, Madden is making football accessible through his games.

As the face of football, you might expect a lot of hoopla surrounding his ride into the sunset. Madden didn't oblige, retiring quickly and relatively quietly. Like his commentary, it was direct, straightforward, and classy. Sports and sports broadcasting could use more voices like that, even if they spend too much time fawning over the Cowboys and Brett Favre. And, because there are some times when analysis can be boiled down to a simple BOOM:

(I'll be perfectly honest... I just included this clip because the idea of Pepper Johnson laying out Randall Cunningham makes me happy.)